It feels like each of these Australian Olympic teams have just been born. Wow! The birthing process has been pretty tough and brutal, and the ongoing health of each team is still getting a battering with protests and in some cases the individual soundness of some of the horses possibly still being questioned. What a rugged and cruel fight.
A potential Olympian has to survive this incredible battle before composing themselves for the performance of their lives at the Olympics. It’s really tough and can only be survived by our most amazing and determined riders and our most amazing and talented horses. Just to get on these Australian Olympic teams, these riders and their horses have already prevailed where very few could survive. To everyone on these teams and everyone who fought so hard to be part of these teams and who just didn’t quite make it, please know Australia is proud of you.
THE AUSTRALIAN EVENTING TEAM
How many nations are competing in the Eventing discipline at the Paris Olympics?
There are 16 nations fielding a team competing for the team Olympic medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics in the Eventing discipline. A team is made up of three riders. So, in terms of individual riders vying for the individual medals, all of these team riders will also compete for individual medals plus another 17 individual riders from other nations who do not have a full team. So, the individual Eventing Olympic medals will have 65 athletes in that competition.
Best case scenario, where can the Australian team realistically finish at the Paris Olympics?
If we put forward the best CCI4*L finishing scores (the Olympics are not CCI5*L level) that each of our team riders has produced and add them together, I am suggesting that this outcome is a good representation of our best performance possible. Comparing this to the other nations with their best performances possible will give us an indication of where our team is more or less capable of ranking.
So using this system, Australia is capable of a team penalty accumulative score of 98.2 penalties.
The team to beat is Great Britain. If I use the same system, Great Britain is capable of a team penalty accumulative score of 70.1 penalties. Ouch! I think I need to change this system! Those two predicted outcomes suggest we are going to get flogged! Yep. I think I’m changing the system. Realistically we are not going to get flogged, but this is a firm indication that we are going to struggle getting around Great Britain. Actually, Great Britain is easily the favourite to win the team gold medal.
Germany is very likely to turn in 74.4 penalties as an accumulated team score. That makes them the likely silver medallist and again belting the heck out of us.
France has a team score prediction of 76.7 penalties. Very close to the Germans and tipped to win the team bronze medal.
New Zealand is expected to have 82.4 penalties and move into fourth position.
The USA is tipped to have a team score of 93.1 penalties and move into fifth position.
Australia at the moment has a prediction of 98.2 penalties as an accumulated team score. That puts us into sixth position. Well let me tell you right now, Australia will challenge for a team medal providing we are not subject to some really bad luck. At Tokyo we did win team silver. Both Kevin McNab and Shane Rose were part of that Olympic effort three years ago and Chris Burton will, in actual fact, strengthen our team and be the sharp end, spearheading our attack. Getting around Great Britain is going to need a fairly major miracle but historically we have against the odds occasionally prevailed and beaten the Brits.
Quite frankly we have our work cut out to get a team medal at this Olympics and although we would really like to get a gold medal, I think a silver or a bronze team medal will represent an amazing effort from our Australian team in Paris for the 2024 Olympics.
So, let’s have a look at our Australian Eventing Team members.
CHRIS BURTON & SHADOW MAN
How experienced is Chris Burton?
Chris is super experienced at this level and at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics, Chris was in the lead of the whole competition after the dressage and cross country. Chris had two rails down in the first show jumping round, which was for the team competition and again two rails down in the second show jumping round, which determined the individual medals. This dropped Chris to fifth position individually. Still a very fancy result. The Australian team did end up with a team bronze medal largely as a result of Chris Burton’s contribution. This time around Chris is riding Shadow Man, who is a beautiful show jumper and all being well, has a very good chance of being 100% clear in the show jumping phase. Game on!!
What are Chris’s strengths?
Chris is incredibly competitive and is known as being the fastest cross country rider in the world. Chris has a clear record of having won major championships by leading in the dressage phase and then finishing without any further penalties being incurred. This is exactly what will constitute the formula for the Paris 2024 individual gold medallist. Chris is a serious chance.
How experienced is the partnership?
Perhaps the weakest part of this partnership is that Chris and Shadow Man have been a combination since March 2024. So the team of Chris and Shadow Man is young indeed spanning just sixth months.
What are Shadow Man’s strengths?
Shadow Man is uniquely talented in all three disciplines of dressage, cross country and show jumping. Most horses like most people have a weakness. Not Shadow Man!
What performance in the past hints at what this combination is capable of?
In the last trial for selection, Chris and Shadow Man finished on a final score of 25.7 penalties. This sort of score is climbing up into contention for an individual medal. Allowing for the fact that Chris and Shadow Man have scores that are getting better and better, there are definite indications that Chris and Shadow Man could rip right through the whole Olympic field. That’s a projection and I reckon it’s worth putting your money on.
KEVIN MCNAB & SCUDERIA 1918 DON QUIDAM
How experienced is Kevin McNab?
Kevin McNab has always been a super talented Australian rider harking from the bush in Queensland. He took forever to get onto an Australian team and stamp his quality across the world. Kevin and Boyd Martin are the best of mates and Boyd has for many years now been the frontrunner for the USA eventing team. Boyd has been so, so successful much to Kevin’s disgust. Kevin and Boyd grew up together and caused so much mayhem in their early days. Kevin maintains that he has always been the best rider. Kevin at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics was part of the Australian team silver medal effort and indeed beat Boyd and the USA team. Kevin is on fire and hungry for success.
What are Kevin’s strengths?
Kevin is a real horseman and very systematic and particular and accurate. Put all of this together and add it to the ultimate competitor, and that is dynamite.
How experienced is Scuderia 1918 Don Quidam?
Scuderia 1918 Don Quidam was Kevin’s mount at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 where they were part of the Australian team silver medal effort. This is a great horse.
Best case scenario, what score could this combination post and what does this mean from an individual performance outcome indicate?
Kevin and Scuderia 1918 Don Quidam are probably capable of a personal best score of 28 penalties at the end of the day. This is not sharp enough to challenge for an individual medal but is a very high calibre back up score that would contribute to an Australian team medal in Paris 2024.
SHANE ROSE & VIRGIL
How experienced is Shane Rose?
This is Shane’s fourth Olympics. Shane has also represented Australia at five FEI World Equestrian Games/World Championships. Shane is one of the most experienced Olympians about to compete at the Paris Olympics.
What are Shane’s strengths?
Shane is the ultimate competitor and can produce international results on numerous horses. Shane does have a unique ability to team up with a horse and promote the horses’ longevity and partnership over a long period of time. Shane and Virgil have been partners for over 15 years!!! There will not be one combination at the Paris Olympics that can even come close to matching this magnificent achievement.
How experienced is Virgil?
Virgil is going to perhaps be the most experienced competitor at the Paris 2024 Olympics. Virgil has already competed in two World Equestrian Championships/World Championships for Australia, and this is Virgil’s second Olympic Games for Australia. I reckon this is a world record. This horse is an Australian legend.
What performance in the past hints at what this combination is capable of?
This combination is the partnership of all time and is also the ultimate competition machine. At the Adelaide CCI5*L last year, they finished with a final score of 28.5 penalties. I think Shane and Virgil could go and do a personal best of 25 penalties at the Paris Olympics. That would be a freak result. This is the partnership to produce a freak result. This would provide the sort of support an Australian team would need to go round the British riders and Australia come home with a team gold medal. Whatever happens, you are watching one of the all-time great partnerships to ever exist in the world of eventing. Go Shane and Virgil.
SHENAE LOWINGS & BOLD VENTURE (TRAVELLING RESERVE)
How experienced is Shenae Lowings?
Shenae and Bold Venture at the moment are first reserve. This is their first Olympics (although they did ride at the 2022 FEI World Championships) and I think all of Australia is hoping that from here on Shenae will move forward and become a regular Olympian for Australia. There are lots of rumours out there but certainly one of them is that Shenae well may be required to step up and be part of the team at Paris 2024.
What are Shenae’s strengths?
Two years ago, Shenae and Bold Venture finished the Melbourne International Three-Day Event on a score of 25.3 penalties. That is a hysterically good score anywhere in the world. Shenae and Bold Venture are just really, really good in all three disciplines. If fate was to see Shenae move up into the team for Paris, our Australian team prospects will not be downgraded. That is one hell of a statement!
THE AUSTRALIAN DRESSAGE TEAM
How many nations are competing in the dressage discipline at the Paris Olympics?
There are 15 teams competing at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. Each team is made up of three riders and all of these riders are also competing in the individual competition. So that is 45 riders. There are another 15 riders whose countries were unable to field a full team (for example, Melissa Galloway and Windermere J’Obei W of New Zealand) but as individuals these riders qualified and are now competing for the individual medals. So, 60 combinations of rider and horse make up the Paris 2024 Dressage Olympic Games.
Best case scenario, where can the Australian team realistically finish at the Paris Olympics?
Australia is currently ranked 13th out of 15 nations.
The nation tipped to win the team gold medal is Great Britain. How can a nation be favourite to win both the dressage team gold medal at an Olympics and the eventing team gold medal. Pretty amazing. I am expecting the British dressage riders to average in just over 80% per rider. Oh my goodness. This will be a world record.
Right behind the British team, I think Denmark will be right on their tail. My maths says that the Danish riders will also average just over 80% each. This will be a right royal battle. It could go any way, but I am suggesting that Denmark will get the team silver medal.
Germany who has dominated dressage for decades is my tip for a bronze medal with the German riders averaging something like 79.8%. Oh my goodness, what a battle. These three nations are way out on their own and this battle for a gold medal could go to any one of these countries.
Fourth place is probably going to be Holland. The Dutch riders are likely to average in around 76.4%. It is peculiar how quickly the rest of the world drops back from the top three nations.
At this stage I think Australia is going to be 13th, however, right down at this end there are lots of nations very closely packed. I am tipping Spain to fill the eighth position in the team competition. Now the best Australia has ever done was at the 2000 Sydney Olympics where we came eighth (beat the British, just thought I’d add that in). So eighth would be a great outcome for Australia and see us heading back in the right direction. By my maths, Spain is going to have an average score for each rider of 71.9%. Well Australia, who I am predicting is going to come 13th, is by my maths going to have an average score of 71.4%. So, within .5% there are going to be five teams in that zone. That is so close. Thirteenth position and we will all be a little disappointed. Eighth position and Australia will launch its program for the Brisbane Olympics and possible medals in 2032! Is eighth position a possibility for Australia? Too right it is. Just keep your fingers crossed and everything else.
At the last Olympics being Tokyo in 2021, where did the Australian Dressage Team finish there?
Australia came 14th at the Tokyo Olympics. We very much did not get the scores that we had anticipated and hoped for prior to the Tokyo Games.
So let’s have a look at the riders who have been selected to represent Australia and whose task it is to try and reverse history so that our results start heading in the correct direction.
JAYDEN BROWN & WILLINGAPARK QUINCY B
How experienced is Jayden Brown?
This is Jayden’s first Olympics, and he has been based in England for the last two years training with Carl Hester and Charlotte Dujardin. Both Carl and Charlotte have been selected for the British team and as you can see earlier in this article, I anticipate the British to start favourites for the team gold medal. So Jayden has been mixing with the right calibre of expertise. Jayden is a classy looking rider and has trained WillingaPark Quincy B since he was three years of age. WillingaPark Quincy B is owned by Terry and Ginnette Snow.
What are Jayden’s strengths?
Jayden is a very powerful rider and simultaneously very elegant. The judges like him!
How experienced is WillingaPark Quincy B?
Willingapark Quincy B has been doing Grand Prix for just over 12 months and has done just eight international FEI Grand Prix starts. So Quincy B is in the early stages of his Grand Prix career.
What are WillingaPark Quincy B’s strengths?
Willingapark Quincy B has very powerful and expressive trot work and in the canter pirouettes has a wonderful interpretation.
Best case scenario, what score could this combination post and what does this mean from an individual performance outcome indicate?
If Jayden and Willingapark Quincy B could do a 72% test at the Paris Olympics, this would contribute considerably towards Australia moving out of a predicted 13th placing towards a team eighth placing. This would be a personal best score for a Grand Prix test for Jayden and Willingapark Quincy B but maybe it is possible. We shall see.
SIMONE PEARCE & DESTANO
How experienced is Simone Pearce?
Simone competed for Australia at the Tokyo 2021 Olympics. Simone is clearly ranked as our number one dressage team member. Simone is riding Destano and this was also Simone’s ride at the Tokyo Olympics. Destano with Simone Pearce in the saddle currently holds the Australian Grand Prix record of 76.261%. Simone and Destano are the pointy end on the Australian team and a score anywhere near their personal best of 76.261% would absolutely rocket Australia towards an eighth team placing. If Australia was to come eighth this would qualify the Australian team to ride off for a team medal and take part in the Grand Prix Special. There is zero chance of Australia challenging for a team medal but qualifying for the Grand Prix Special and taking part in the team medal ride off would be a very serious international statement for Australia.
WILL MATTHEW & MYSTERIOUS STAR
How experienced is Will Matthew?
Will Matthew hails from Western Australia and moved to Germany when he was just 17 years of age. Over the years a lot of young Australian riders have followed similar paths and very few have ever been heard of again. This is not a formula that is without its dangers. It is, however, a formula that lots of people try. Anyway, Will Matthew has clearly been outstanding and taken full advantage of a rather tough opportunity and holy smoke is he now kicking goals. He has been in Germany for 13 years and has been riding 11-year-old Mysterious Star for owner Stephanie Göller since the horse just turned five years old. The horse came to him while working in Austrian for the Hödl Family and has stayed with him since.
Since 2019 he has worked part time for Isabell Werth, and these days in the afternoons he again works with the Hödl Family who are now his business partners.
Isabell Werth has a record of looking after young up and coming Australians. Hayley Beresford worked for Isabell and rode for Australia in the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games on a horse called Relampago do Retiro, which was a horse owned by an Isabell Werth client. Will Matthew could not be under a more experienced and positive mentor than Isabell Werth.
What are Will’s strengths?
Will rides Mysterious Star with great tact and beauty. The tests are always executed technically really well and always present in a way that the performance looks effortless. The judges do respond well to Will and Mysterious Star.
What performance in the past hints at what this combination is capable of?
Will and Mysterious Star usually attend shows which are also being attended by Isabell Werth. Isabell really only goes to the biggest shows on the European circuit. So, unlike a lot of people starting out, Will has cut his teeth against the best riders in the world at the biggest shows in the world. This is a tough way to do things, but you are very solidly kept in touch with reality. So the scores that Will has been posting are definitely scores that he will post again at the Olympics. Will’s scores are in actual fact slowly but surely progressively improving. This trend is likely to keep continuing. Will’s personal best to date is 69.630%. Personally, I think the judges are very aware of Will and respect him and he may well go through the 70% mark at Paris. Again, this would be a very serious contribution to moving Australia’s expected team score slightly up and we only need to move slightly up and just maybe we might make eighth position. That would be a miracle. This miracle is only just around the corner. If Will can move that little bit and post a personal best, they just might make the miracle happen. Good luck Will and Mysterious Star.
MARY HANNA & IVANHOE (TRAVELLING RESERVE)
How experienced is Mary Hanna?
Mary Hanna has competed in six Olympic Games, six World Equestrian Championships/FEI World Championships and represented Australia at five World Cup Finals. Mary Hanna is far and away Australia’s most decorated dressage rider ever. Just for the record, Mary has ridden 11 different Grand Prix dressage horses at CDI level over a period of 30 years. Holy smoke that is amazing.
How experienced is Ivanhoe?
Mary has been competing Ivanhoe in international dressage competitions since September 2023. So this partnership is in its early days having been together for something like 12 months.
Mary Hanna is an irrepressible competition rider, and I am confident that this is just the beginning of the Ivanhoe adventure. Mary is unstoppable and a national treasure.
So there are the two teams going to the Paris Olympics for Australia. One is the eventing team who is a very serious, in my opinion, team medal contender and the second is the dressage team who, on careful evaluation, just might turn history around and start an Australian campaign towards international success.
There is a lot to look forward to here and we the spectators are in for a wonderful couple of weeks viewing. Good luck everyone. EQ
Cheers
Heath
